By Neil Smith, ASCL Independent Sector Specialist

This is the second of a two-part blog series.  Part one is here. 

I’ll start with a disclaimer: I have not visited the future, I have not met anyone sent back from the future and, furthermore, historians, such as myself, are notoriously poor at using past events to predict what will happen in the future. More importantly, my previous attempts at soothsaying did not anticipate that I would neither enjoy a fruitful playing career at Manchester United or sell 20 million albums.

Nevertheless, picking up on emerging trends, reflecting on how significant external challenges have previously affected independent schools, and throwing a degree of reasonably-informed guesswork into the mix, it is possible to construct a model of what the independent sector will look like in the medium to long term. Having done that, this blog will provide a general model of what school and college leaders and their governing bodies should be considering in order to put their settings in the strongest position in the future.

External challenges
The independent sector has hitherto proved itself to be both resilient and adaptable when faced with significant external challenges: removal of direct grant status in 1975, the ending of the assisted places scheme in 1997, the pandemic, and imposition of VAT on school fees all saw schools respond in creative ways, even if for some within the sector, these threats resulted in fundamental changes to their offer and status. 

Whilst the drivers of change identified in my last blog could, combined, arguably provide a greater threat than at any time in their history, the sector as a whole is still likely to be in reasonably good health even if it may look somewhat different to what it does today.

1.    There will be fewer independent schools. More than 100 mainstream independent schools have either closed or announced imminent closure since January 2026. Although the rate of closures is likely to slow down by the end of this decade, the number of schools in the sector will be considerably fewer than before the introduction of VAT on school fees. Increased concerns over the cost of living coupled with increases in school fees is also going to force parents to give even greater consideration to non-fee-paying options, especially where there are good state schools and colleges in their vicinity.

2.    The biggest reduction is likely to be seen in the number of single sex schools, and those catering for primary age children. In order to mitigate the impact of VAT and other threats, several single sex schools have taken the decision to go co-ed, or have been forced to close outright. As for prep schools already threatened by falling birth rates and increasing parental preference for the through school model, closure, merger or assimilation into a ‘vertical foundation’ have become significantly more prevalent in recent months, a trend which will result in a significant refining of the sector in the medium term. 

3.    The growing footprint of the for-profit sector is only expected to enlarge, as for-profit school groups either buy up existing mainstream independent schools or open new campuses across the UK. Agents such as Christie and Co, and National Schools Transfer are actively marketing existing school sites to potential buyers, whilst organisations such as Duke’s Education and the QED Group are fast developing a portfolio of schools under the for-profit banner. Governors of those not-for-profit schools fearing closure may see such groups as providing a necessary lifeline; how they impact upon the wider sector remains to be seen. 

4.    Governance is also likely to evolve over the course of the next decade. A role which increasingly requires greater time commitment and expertise in risk management, strategic planning, financial acumen alongside empathy and the ability to support school leaders may no longer be suitable for willing volunteers, parents, alumni etc. Instead, Boards will have to be much more deliberate in who they appoint and may have to go down the path of providing stipends to members, charitable laws allowing.

5.    The idea that a school exists purely on a single site is likely to become archaic. Increases in schools opening campuses overseas, school mergers and development of hybrid models of learning, driven by a desire to offer a broader curriculum than state school competitors with pupils educated on site and remotely (perhaps even by teachers at another independent school) are all developments which are currently taking place and will grow apace as schools look to maintain their financial viability without diminishing their offer to children.

6.    The boarding sector will continue to experience a decline in numbers, and these schools will either disappear, be the preserve of a very small minority or reinvent themselves along the lines of boarding schools on the west coast of the USA. The death of boarding has been a feature for commentators for decades, but recent trends suggests that the challenges which the sector faces could have a terminal impact. In 2000, approximately 15% of children educated at independent schools were boarders. According to the 2025 ISC Census, whilst numbers held reasonably steady until the pandemic, since 2020, the percentage has fallen below 12% and shows no sign of increasing. Indeed, in over three quarters of boarding schools fewer than half of the pupils actually board. Falling numbers of international students, high maintenance costs, VAT, changing parental preferences are all playing their part in this process.

None of these ‘predictions’ are particularly fantastical or unexpected to anyone who has given serious thought to the future of the sector. However, for school leaders and their boards, they must not assume that the changes in the sector will necessarily benefit them or be neutral in their impact. An ambitious strategic programme will be required in order to increase the chances of their school not only surviving but flourishing. 

Those familiar with McKinsey’s Three Horizons model will have at their disposal a strategic planning tool which should enable the right decision to be made at the right time for their school. In short, this model features three elements which could be helpful for governors and leaders:

• Horizon 1 (1-2 years): maintain and defend. Identify and respond to the school’s main strengths and weaknesses.
• Horizon 2 (3-5 years): nuture, borrow and grow. Look outwards to see what is working elsewhere and introduce measures which support the ambitions for Horizon 3.
• Horizon 3 (6-10 years): create and explore. Consider radical, innovative measures which will eventually become the norm.

Each stage must be worked on concurrently, with equal priority and distribution of resources: the point is not simply to think about the immediate future, but also what the school needs to secure its position and grow over time.

Planning for the future is not a luxury, and whichever approach to strategic planning governors and leaders ultimately take it has to be one which puts the future in their hands and does not result in short term, pressurised decision-making which is forced on them rather than in their hands. 

Doubtless, this will be a topic which I shall return to in the coming years (and likely amending my predictions)!