By Neil Smith, ASCL Independent Sector Specialist 

When putting together my workshop for this year’s ASCL Annual Conference, envisaging what the sector might look like in a decade’s time, I quickly realised that it was critical to devote the first part of the presentation to the factors or events which were likely to influence the shape of the sector over this time period, ie what would be the main drivers of change.

Whilst the degree to which each driver might influence a particular school will depend on such factors as their location, size, and position in the ‘marketplace’  (and it’s unlikely each driver will have the same degree of impact over time), it is possible to identify a series of drivers which are more than not likely to significantly affect the evolution of the sector in the coming years, and should be taken into account when attempting to review strategic plans for the next five to ten years. It should also be said that not all these influences pose of themselves a threat; some could provide opportunities for leaders to make positive changes to their schools:

Driver 1: demographics. The Office for National Statistics estimates that the numbers of children aged 0-15 will fall by 6% across the UK between 2025-2035, with the sharpest falls in Northern Ireland and Wales. How will this affect pupil numbers and staffing levels in your school? How will this affect the numbers of schools at primary and secondary which are needed in the state and independent sectors?

Driver 2: parental affordability. This includes both school fees and associated costs, but also an understanding of other drains on household income, such as housing costs, inflation, and broader consumer confidence. 

Driver 3: costs of running a school. Salaries, utilities, pensions, and even partial absorption of VAT are just some of the main factors driving up operating costs. Most recent data suggests that operating costs for schools of all types are increasing at approximately 6% per year.

Driver 4: government policy. Current predictions as to what policy towards the sector will look are hard to make. However, the impact of the current White Paper could have profound effects on how independent schools respond to special educational needs, whilst the encouragement for all state schools to join trusts or other groups could also provide opportunities for independent schools to consider similar moves as a means of ensuring their sustainability.

Driver 5: regional variances. Census data from the ISC already hints at regional patterns in schools which have struggled to remain open, and regional patterns in affordability, school fees and population density are likely to provide additional challenges to schools.

Driver 6: appeal of working in the sector to new and existing teachers. For a generation of leaders for whom working in the independent sector seemed both desirable and a privilege, it may appear counter-intuitive to even consider that teachers working in state schools, or in the process of gaining QTS, may not wish to work in independent schools.

However, when teachers in state schools are guaranteed (for now) membership of TPS, and annual pay rises are above what many independent schools can pay, then the immediate appeal to ‘cross the floor’ may not be as attractive as it once was. This point, however, doesn’t factor in other advantages to working in the independent sector, but I’m still not sure that there is quite the appeal that there once was. In addition, it is not uncommon for teachers in independent schools to move the other way in search of further promotion opportunities and membership of TPS. This is all set in the broader context of concerns over numbers entering (and leaving) the profession, and the increasing demand for teachers from the overseas sector. 

Driver 7: developments in technology. I am not going to even try and anticipate how far AI will transform schools during the next ten years, it is simply moving too fast and its effects potentially too complex. However, as this 2025 report suggests, ignoring its potential effects is simply not an option for school and college leaders.

Driver 8: climate change. The immediate response to this potential driver may be to question its importance to the sector. However, whilst targets to reduce emissions in regions and across the UK may not yet be legally enforceable, it is not unreasonable to suggest that at some point they could be. Equally, requirements to construct new buildings and schools which are designed to conserve energy.

As part of any strategy work which senior leaders do with their teams or with their boards, considering which factors are likely to impact upon their schools should be at the top of their list: if you don’t know what is likely to create change within and beyond the sector then it becomes very difficult to establish a realistic plan for what your vision for the school and how you will realise this vision. 

There will doubtless be other drivers which emerge or may be relevant for different schools and types of school, and I’m sure many will not be surprised by the drivers which I have identified. However, I hope that by considering the drivers identified above, leaders and their boards will be prompted to reflect on what they think is likely to have the biggest influence on the direction of their school and build from there.

What I haven’t done in this piece, of course, is provide any answers for how school and college leaders and governors should respond to these drivers of change. 

In part two of this blog, I will provide a speculative outline for what the sector could look like in the long term and approaches which schools and colleges can take to increase their chances of not just being viable, but also to flourish.